Forget Moore's Law is a very interesting read.
Basically, it says that society has lost it's use for more raw computing power, and that shift will further shake the tech sector to a new, unglamorous role in society.
Hmm. Well, without questioning, it draws some interesting conclusions.
But, with questioning, I don't think it holds up as well. Because there are no current applications that would make use of today's ever-faster processors, the prices are sure to drop. When the prices drop, they become more widespread. When they become more widespread, more applications can be written. It is the applications that have driven Moore's Law, and - despite a lag - it will continue.
Software companies like Microsoft have visions for the future, and they work to establish it. It is
in their interest to establish it. When they see gap - they fill it. When they see a market, they try to fill it.
To say that the hardware market will slow to the point of decay, means that the software companies will have become stagnant. If there is no market to fill, they will create one.
Forget Moore's Law admits
What's more, we haven't even spun out all of the potential applications of the 8080, Z80, or 6502, much less the 80386, DEC Alpha, or the first PowerPC. But,
Hmm. There goes my argument. Heh. Okay, the software companies will be able to keep themselves busy. But, will the major player, Microsoft be able with current technology? I don't think so. Microsoft's foray into the video game market, the XBox, uses an
Intel 733MHz precessor. And that's only the first step: According to Prudential Securities analyst Hans Mosesmann, Microsoft is poised to launch HomeStation, a multi-application consumer device based on the Xbox platform.
So, maybe I can still make an argument against
Forget Moore's Law. New argument: while low-end applications will continue to be developed using older technology, high-end consumer goods will always be pushing the hardware limits.
Perhaps IT meccas like the server farm at Google will be able to use massive quantities of older hardware, but for the burgeoning home and professional markets - as well as niche markets like Pixar and ILM - that brute-force method will not work.
Bah! I'm too tired to think. Hardware will always have a reason and market to continue making faster and smaller products.
Okay... maybe the pace will slow - but I bet it's just a dip. It will rise and fall.
